Statistical/Sampling Fallacy: Logical Fallacy Family

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Statistical/Sampling Fallacy

The reasoning misuses rates, probabilities, samples, distributions, or other quantitative expectations.

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12 fallacies in this family.

Quick family question

What sample, base rate, probability, or distribution is being mishandled here?

Family vs. category

A family is the broad umbrella that gives a fallacy its main home. Categories are the narrower diagnostic tags, so the same fallacy can appear in multiple categories while still belonging to one family.

Anecdotal fallacy

Occurs when a vivid personal story, testimonial, or isolated case is treated as stronger evidence than broader, better, or more representative evidence.

EvidentialPerceptual

Intermediate Intro college

Anecdotal fallacy companion poster in a retro mid-century editorial cartoon style, illustrating occurs when a vivid personal story, testimonial, or isolated case is treated as stronger evidence than broader, better, or more representative evidence.

Appeal to probability

Occurs when someone assumes that because something could happen, it is therefore likely or inevitable that it will happen.

Mathematical

Advanced Advanced undergraduate

Appeal to probability companion poster in a retro mid-century editorial cartoon style, illustrating occurs when someone assumes that because something could happen, it is therefore likely or inevitable that it will happen.

Base rate fallacy

Occurs when someone judges how likely a case is by focusing on vivid case-specific evidence while ignoring the underlying frequency of the thing in question.

Mathematical

Intermediate Intro college

Base rate fallacy companion poster in a retro mid-century editorial cartoon style, illustrating occurs when someone judges how likely a case is by focusing on vivid case-specific evidence while ignoring the underlying frequency of the thing in question.

Conjunction fallacy

Occurs when a more detailed scenario is treated as more probable than a less detailed scenario that already contains it.

ConceptualMathematical

Advanced Advanced undergraduate

Conjunction fallacy companion poster in a retro mid-century editorial cartoon style, illustrating occurs when a more detailed scenario is treated as more probable than a less detailed scenario that already contains it.

Ecological fallacy

Occurs when statistics about a group are used to draw conclusions about particular individuals in that group.

MathematicalConceptual

Advanced Advanced undergraduate

Ecological fallacy companion poster in a retro mid-century editorial cartoon style, illustrating occurs when statistics about a group are used to draw conclusions about particular individuals in that group.

Gambler's fallacy

Occurs when someone thinks past outcomes of independent events make a future independent outcome more or less likely than it really is.

MathematicalCausal

Advanced Advanced undergraduate

Gambler's fallacy companion poster in a retro mid-century editorial cartoon style, illustrating occurs when someone thinks past outcomes of independent events make a future independent outcome more or less likely than it really is.

Hasty generalization

Occurs when someone draws a broad conclusion from too little evidence, too small a sample, or a badly skewed sample.

EvidentialMathematical

Intermediate Intro college

Hasty generalization companion poster in a retro mid-century editorial cartoon style, illustrating occurs when someone draws a broad conclusion from too little evidence, too small a sample, or a badly skewed sample.

Prosecutor's fallacy

Occurs when a low probability of a false match is confused with a low probability that a matched person is innocent.

Mathematical

Advanced Advanced undergraduate

Prosecutor's fallacy companion poster in a retro mid-century editorial cartoon style, illustrating occurs when a low probability of a false match is confused with a low probability that a matched person is innocent.

Regression fallacy

Occurs when movement back toward a normal range after an extreme result is credited to some intervention that may have had little or nothing to do with it.

CausalMathematical

Advanced Intro college

Regression fallacy companion poster in a retro mid-century editorial cartoon style, illustrating occurs when movement back toward a normal range after an extreme result is credited to some intervention that may have had little or nothing to do with it.

Sharpshooter fallacy

Occurs when someone highlights the data cluster that supports a favored story only after looking at the results, then treats that hand-picked pattern as if it had been th...

EvidentialConceptual

Intermediate Intro college

Sharpshooter fallacy companion poster in a retro mid-century editorial cartoon style, illustrating occurs when someone highlights the data cluster that supports a favored story only after looking at the results, then treats that hand-picked pattern as if it had been the tested target all along.

Spotlight fallacy

Occurs when the most visible or most covered cases in a category are treated as if they represent the category as a whole.

Perspectival

Advanced Intro college

Spotlight fallacy companion poster in a retro mid-century editorial cartoon style, illustrating occurs when the most visible or most covered cases in a category are treated as if they represent the category as a whole.

Survivorship bias

Occurs when conclusions are drawn from the visible successes that made it through a filter while the failures, dropouts, or non-survivors are ignored.

MathematicalEvidential

Advanced Advanced undergraduate

Survivorship bias companion poster in a retro mid-century editorial cartoon style, illustrating occurs when conclusions are drawn from the visible successes that made it through a filter while the failures, dropouts, or non-survivors are ignored.