Appeal to probability
Occurs when someone assumes that because something could happen, it is therefore likely or inevitable that it will happen.
Mathematical
Intermediate
High school
Category
Mathematical
Missteps involving probability, statistics, scope, quantity, or numerical expectations.
Base rate fallacy
Occurs when someone judges how likely a case is by focusing on vivid case-specific evidence while ignoring the underlying frequency of the thing in question.
Mathematical
Foundational
Middle school+
Broken window fallacy
Occurs when destruction or forced replacement is treated as an economic gain because the visible spending is counted while the unseen losses and forgone alternatives are...
EvidentialMathematical
Intermediate
High school
Conjunction fallacy
Occurs when a more detailed scenario is treated as more probable than a less detailed scenario that already contains it.
ConceptualMathematical
Advanced
Advanced undergraduate
Ecological fallacy
Occurs when statistics about a group are used to draw conclusions about particular individuals in that group.
MathematicalConceptual
Advanced
Advanced undergraduate
Gambler's fallacy
Occurs when someone thinks past outcomes of independent events make a future independent outcome more or less likely than it really is.
MathematicalCausal
Advanced
Advanced undergraduate
Hasty generalization
Occurs when someone draws a broad conclusion from too little evidence, too small a sample, or a badly skewed sample.
EvidentialMathematical
Foundational
Middle school+
Linearity fallacy
Occurs when someone assumes that doubling the input will double the output even though the system has thresholds, saturation, feedback loops, or diminishing returns.
ConceptualMathematical
Advanced
Advanced undergraduate
Prosecutor's fallacy
Occurs when a low probability of a false match is confused with a low probability that a matched person is innocent.
Mathematical
Intermediate
High school
Regression fallacy
Occurs when movement back toward a normal range after an extreme result is credited to some intervention that may have had little or nothing to do with it.
CausalMathematical
Advanced
Advanced undergraduate
Survivorship bias
Occurs when conclusions are drawn from the visible successes that made it through a filter while the failures, dropouts, or non-survivors are ignored.
MathematicalEvidential
Intermediate
High school